Green energy-efficient buildings are expected to promote the development of the polyurethane insulation materials industry. Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued the “Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Green Buildings in China”, which clearly stipulates that through the establishment of financial incentives, sound standards and evaluation of marking systems, and promotion of relevant scientific and technological progress and industrial development. By means of 2015, the newly added green building area will be over 1 billion square meters. Strive to achieve more than 30% of new buildings by 2020。
Investment points
As China's building insulation materials industry policy becomes clearer, the polyurethane insulation industry is expected to accelerate. China's building exterior wall insulation industry experienced a stagnation development during the strict “one size fits all” policy period from Circular 65. By December 2011, the State Council issued the “State Council's Opinions on Strengthening and Improving Fire Fighting Work”, and conducted the No. 65 document. Policy adjustments, organic insulation materials can be used in buildings of a certain height. Although the final formal policy documents have not yet been issued, we believe that the final policy will take into account the fire resistance and thermal insulation properties of the insulation materials, with a strict degree between the 46th and the 65th. With the comprehensive advantages in fire performance and thermal insulation performance, the proportion of polyurethane insulation materials used in exterior wall buildings is expected to be further improved.。
According to the different permeability scenarios of polyurethane insulation materials in new green buildings, we will analyze the situation of aggregated MDI and polyether demand for new green energy-saving buildings during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period and after 2017.：
Scenario 1：The penetration rate of polyurethane insulation materials in the field of new green buildings and energy-saving renovation is 20%. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the newly added demand for polymerized MDI is 147,000 tons, and the demand for polyether is 120,000 tons. After 2017, the annual aggregated MDI demand will be 352,000 tons, corresponding to the new polyether demand of 288,000 tons.。
Scenario 2：The penetration rate of polyurethane insulation materials in the field of new green buildings and energy-saving renovation is 30%
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the newly added demand for polymeric MDI was 220,000 tons, and the demand for polyether was 180,000 tons. After 2017, the annual demand for new aggregate MDI will be 528,000 tons, corresponding to the new demand for polyether, 432,000 tons.。
Scenario 3: Permeability of polyurethane insulation in new green buildings and energy-saving retrofits is 40%
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the aggregate demand for polymeric MDI was 294,000 tons, and the demand for polyether was 240,000 tons. After 2017, the annual demand for new aggregate MDI will reach 704,000 tons, corresponding to an additional demand of 516,000 tons.
Investment strategy and recommendations：
With the advancement of green energy-saving building foam glass during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the demand for polymerized MDI and polyether is expected to increase rapidly. It is expected that related companies in the polyurethane industry chain will benefit.。
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